1929 Annual Stock Market Forecast

1929 Annual Stock Market Forecast

1929 Annual Stock Market Forecast WD Gann Scientific service inc- projected curve #1 and main trend which 30 industrial stocks should follow.

Category: Stock


tag: Gann

Language: English

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This year (1929) occurs in a cycle, which shows the ending of the bull market and the beginning of a prolonged bear campaign. The present bull market campaign has lasted longer than any previous campaign in the history of this country. The fact that it has run longer and prices have advanced to such abnormal heights means that when the decline sets in, it must be in proportion to the advance. The year 1929 will witness some sharp, severe panicky declines in many high priced stocks.

The history of the stock market has always been that it discounts prosperity and that in doing so prices always advance too far. In other words, the stock market runs too far ahead of prosperity and the first decline is only a readjustment back to what stocks should sell according to their merit and investment return. Then, when business depression sets in and earnings start to show a falling off, stock prices continue to go lower, discounting unfavorable business conditions.

But such groups of stocks as the oils, sugars, rubbers and some of the agricultural stocks, which have been depressed and declined while other stocks advanced, will record much higher prices in 1929. New and popular industries will continue to prosper, such as, radio, airplane, chemical and electrical concerns.

This is the electrical age. People take quickly to new inventions, especially those which provide for the convenience and comfort of living. This will increase the earnings of concerns manufacturing new cleotrica1 appliances.

Many stocks will be distributed and will work lower while the stocks in strong position work higher. With such a varied list of stocks representing so many industries in different parts of the country, it is not reasonable to suppose that they would follow the same trend by any means.

More and more business is getting into the lines of mass production, mergers and consolidation. The big companies are getting the business while the smaller companies find it harder to get business enough to return a fair amount on their capital stock.

During the early part of the year, business conditions will not be up to general hopes and expectations. In the spring and summer, business will improve and the outlook generally will be cheerful. But again in the fall of the year, depression will set in and unfavorable business conditions will cause big declines in stocks. Money rates will be high the greater part of the year.

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