Dividends Still Don’t Lie PDF (The Truth About Investing in Blue Chip Stocks and Winning in the Stock Market) teaches a value-based strategy to investing, one that uses a stock’s dividend yield as the primary measure of value. Rather than emphasize the price cycles of a stock, the company’s products, market strategy or other factors, this guide stresses dividend-yield patterns.
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Author: Kelley Wright
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A timely follow-up to the bestselling classic Dividends Don’t Lie
In 1988 Geraldine Weiss wrote the classic Dividends Don’t Lie, which focused on the Dividend-Yield Theory as a method of producing consistent gains in the stock market. Today, the approach of using the dividend yield to identify values in blue chip stocks still outperforms most investment methods on a risk-adjusted basis.
Written by Kelley Wright, Managing Editor of Investment Quality Trends, with a new Foreword by Geraldine Weiss, this book teaches a value-based strategy to investing, one that uses a stock’s dividend yield as the primary measure of value. Rather than emphasize the price cycles of a stock, the company’s products, market strategy or other factors, this guide stresses dividend-yield patterns.
- Details a straightforward system of investing in stick-to-quality blue-chip stocks with reliable dividend histories
- Discusses how to buy and sell when dividend yields instruct you to do so
- Investors looking for safety and transparency will quickly discover how dividends offer the yields they desire
With Dividends Still Don’t Lie, you’ll gain the confidence to make sophisticated stock market decisions and obtain solid value for your investment dollars.
from the author:
Life is the best teacher, boy.’’ This was my grandfather’s way of saying that the best education is experiential. I am confident he arrived at this knowledge honestly; I know that I did. I know this to be true as the result of almost three decades of experience as both an advisor and private investor. Experience means you have lost money in the markets, survived, and learned how to invest better. Rest assured that I have a lot of experience.
In 1988, my mentor and predecessor Geraldine Weiss wrote the classic Dividends Don’t Lie. That book detailed the dividend-value strategy behind Investment Quality Trends, the highly successful newsletter Geraldine founded and that I now have the privilege to edit.
Twenty-two years hence, the investment world has changed dramatically because of computer technology and the Internet. Tremendous amounts of data and information can be gathered, sorted, and analyzed in a matter of minutes. What used to take weeks or months at a library can now be accomplished in an evening; all one needs is a computer and Internet access. What hasn’t changed is the success of the dividend-value strategy for producing consistent gains in the stock market. Despite the advent of new technologies and the ability of investors to access information on an unprecedented basis, our old-school technique of using the dividend yield to identify values in blue chip stocks still outperforms most investment methods on a risk-adjusted basis.
Forty-four years after its inception, Investment Quality Trends continues to focus on combining sound stock selection with a long-term orientation because, over time, the stock market rewards investors who recognize and appreciate good value. In fact, the two greatest assets an investor can have are a system to identify quality and the ability to recognize value.
Although the dividend-value strategy has always had its fair share of detractors, critics and criticism have grown exponentially since the mid 1990s and the advent of alternative investments and the evolution of investment theory. Although the vast majority of these advancements have proven to be abject failures, it is still fashionable in some circles to simply dismiss the dividend-value strategy as an offshoot of the buy-and-hold philosophy.
In the simplest of terms, buy-and-hold is making an investment with no intention of ever selling and expecting financial gains into perpetuity. If detractors of the dividend-value strategy had actually taken the time to objectively study its concepts, they would find a clearly defined selling discipline based on repetitive dividend yield patterns; just one of several critical dimensions that are clearly absent in the buy-and-hold philosophy. Putting this and other fallacies to rest is one of the primary purposes of writing Dividends Still Don’t Lie.
We believe the twin pillars of quality and value provide an investment foundation that takes much of the risk and anxiety out of investing in the stock market. We further believe that protecting principal while realizing a tangible return on investment from dividends makes perfect common sense, yet both are routinely dismissed as archaic. To be sure, disagreements among market participants are a requisite element for a properly functioning market, however, disagreements can devolve to a degree of dismissive hubris that allows for the type of irrational exuberance that brought us the worst bear market since the Great Crash of 1929. Interestingly, the current bear market has validated that our thought to be archaic beliefs cannot only survive, but prosper, in virtually any investment climate.
Well into our fifth decade in publication, Investment Quality Trends remains relentless in the pursuit of identifying value in the stock market and in understanding the myriad factors that influence stock prices each day. While this is a fascinating quest, it is not easy, nor are we always right. Our track record of success has been consistently sufficient, however, to affirm we are on the right path.
Although advances in technology provide investors access to more data and information than at any point in history, human nature has remained relatively unchanged since the Garden of Eden.
This is to say that having more data and information has not cured the human propensity for being easily seduced by myths and misinformation, which results in missed opportunities and valuable compounding time. Investing is a business and should be treated as such. If you want to gamble, go to Las Vegas. If you have issues that need to be worked out, get a therapist. If you want to be successful in the stock market, learn how to identify quality businesses that offer historic value and then make the most efficient use of your resources.
This book is a short read by design. The game plan outlined here is based on the fact that a stock’s underlying value is in its dividends, not in its earnings or in its prospects for capital gains. More than four decades of research have shown that blue-chip companies, those with long records of consistent, competent performance, are far more predictable than are upstarts or less-established companies with erratic records of earnings and dividend payments. In short, the dividend-value strategy is a proven, commonsense approach that has ultimately led to long-term results.
Although the volume may be light, the content is heavy. With all due respect to the Nobel laureates in economics and finance, the sheepskin isn’t required to be a successful investor. I would suggest that you would do better to mind a good dose of mom’s common sense and a little discipline. If you feel like it’s necessary to do some heavy mathematical and economic lifting to get your money’s worth I can steer you in that direction, but you’ll probably get confused and frustrated trying to implement some esoteric investment strategy you’ll never understand. Don’t be intimidated into thinking simplicity doesn’t work.
Most investors don’t lose money in the markets because they’re stupid; they lose money because they haven’t put in the time and do not understand risk. If you can learn to think through your actions before you take them, you are well on your way to reaching your financial goals.
Lastly, investing is as much about perception and perspective as it is methods and technique. If your gut reaction to an event or situation is that something isn’t right, for gosh sakes pay attention to it! ‘‘Opportunity,’’ Geraldine says, ‘‘is like a streetcar; another one will come along soon.’’
Table of Contents- Dividends Still Don’t Lie PDF
Foreword by Geraldine Weiss ix
List of Figures and Tables xv
PART I THE ART OF DIVIDEND INVESTING
CHAPTER 1 First Things First 3
CHAPTER 2 The Case for Investing in Stocks 11
CHAPTER 3 The Dividend-Value Strategy 29
CHAPTER 4 Quality and Blue Chip Stocks 43
CHAPTER 5 Value and Blue Chip Stocks 59
PART II BARGAINS STILL COME IN CYCLES
CHAPTER 6 Value and the Stock Market 73
CHAPTER 7 Finding Undervalued and Overvalued
CHAPTER 8 Value, Cycles, and the Dow Jones
PART III WINNING IN THE STOCK MARKET
CHAPTER 9 Developing a Successful Stock Strategy 131
CHAPTER 10 Building and Managing the Dividend-Value Portfolio 149
CHAPTER 11 The Stock Market and the Economy 169
CHAPTER 12 Questions and Answers 177
CHAPTER 13 Conclusion 191
Recommended Reading 195
About the Author 197
“After all these years, I am pleased to note that dividends still don’t lie.”—from the Foreword by Geraldine Weiss, co-author of Dividends Don’t Lie
Praise for DIVIDENDS STILL DON’T LIE
“In the coming years, there will be increased focus on income and dividends as Boomers look to turn their savings into retirement income. A solid grasp of dividends and how they work will be a basic requirement. Fortunately, Kelley Wright has updated the basic primer on dividends and their importance.”—John Mauldin, Editor, Thoughts from the Front Line e-letter; author, Bull’s Eye Investing
“Kelley’s new book provides excellent information on critical investment value of stocks that pay dividends. This book should be read and studied by all serious investors.”—Richard Russell, Editor, Dow Theory Letters
“Kelley Wright has taken the success strategy of dividends to a new level. In an age when many claim to have discovered a new path to Wall Street success, Kelley has refreshed and refined the value-based system that uses dividends as a guide to income and profits. A whole new generation of investors will benefit.”—George Chamberlin, Editor, Investing for Rookies
“What a great update of a truly great book for investors! Kelley has done a terrific job for individual investors and also for our clients who are privileged to use Investment Quality Trends investment advisory services. Understanding what dividends can do for your portfolio is vitally important for investing over a lifetime.”—James B. Jackson, Jackson Financial Services
“A must-read for every stock market investor. Dividends Still Don’t Lie is the long awaited update on a tried-and-true discipline. This method tells you when a blue chip stock is undervalued enough to buy or overvalued enough to consider selling. For decades, Weiss and Wright have addressed huge audiences—and with good reason: dividends account for an increasing proportion of the stock market’s total return. Don’t invest without it.”—Kim and Charles Githler, Co-Founders, MoneyShow
‘‘Geraldine Weiss, the doyenne of dividend enhancement, has popularized the theory that there is an inescapable relationship between the corporation’s ability to pay consistent dividends over time and its price performance in the stock market. Her respected newsletter, Investment Quality Trends, employs this theoretical basis, and her classic Dividends Don’t Lie is a primer on her theory.’’
‘‘Geraldine Weiss’ dividend yield investment model espoused in Dividends Don’t Lie is basically reiterated and confirmed. This relatively simple, straightforward strategy, limited here to 350 select blue-chip stocks, has regularly outperformed the market (as documented by Mark Hulbert, who tracks investment advisers in his Hulbert Financial Digest).’’
‘‘In their technically detailed, conservative analysis, the authors recommend careful study of high grade issues with steady dividend-increase records. Investors should buy shares when the stock is undervalued in relation to dividend yield, then sell (reinvesting elsewhere) when a bullish trend drives the share price up to an overvalue level.’’
‘‘The first dividend accrues to the reader when you buy Dividends Don’t Lie. It is a superb value.’’
—Bob Gross, Publisher,
The Professional Investor
About the author
Kelley Wright is Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at I.Q. Trends Private Client Asset Management. He is also Managing Editor of the Investment Quality Trends newsletter. Since 1989, Wright has been a private money manager and has served as Chief Investment Officer to three investment management firms. In 2002, he was handpicked by the legendary Geraldine Weiss to succeed her as Managing Editor of the number one rated Investment Quality Trends newsletter she started in 1966. Wright is an active lecturer nationwide at trade shows and investment conferences and a frequent guest on both television and radio.
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